Politics
Obama at U of M and Correspondents Dinner
Submitted by Jonathan on Sun, 2010-05-02 14:00Yesterday Obama spoke at the University of Michigan commencement. In addition to making the affirmative case for government, he made the case for civility (as issue lately on my mind) and for listening to and understanding the points of view of people who think differently than you do:
…we cannot expect to solve our problems if all we do is tear each other down. You can disagree with a certain policy without demonizing the person who espouses it. You can question someone's views and their judgment without questioning their motives or their patriotism. Throwing around phrases like "socialist" and "Soviet-style takeover;" "fascist" and "right-wing nut" may grab headlines, but it also has the effect of comparing our government, or our political opponents, to authoritarian, and even murderous regimes.
Again, we have seen this kind of politics in the past. It's been practiced by both fringes of the ideological spectrum, by the left and the right, since our nation's birth.
The problem with it is not the hurt feelings or the bruised egos of the public officials who are criticized.
The problem is that this kind of vilification and over-the-top rhetoric closes the door to the possibility of compromise. It undermines democratic deliberation. It prevents learning - since after all, why should we listen to a "fascist" or "socialist" or "right wing nut?" It makes it nearly impossible for people who have legitimate but bridgeable differences to sit down at the same table and hash things out. It robs us of a rational and serious debate that we need to have about the very real and very big challenges facing this nation. It coarsens our culture, and at its worst, it can send signals to the most extreme elements of our society that perhaps violence is a justifiable response.
Here is video of the speech:
On a lighter note, here is video of Obama and Leno cracking jokes at the White Correspondents Dinner:
Love him as yourself
Submitted by Jonathan on Thu, 2010-04-29 23:03Lately I've been following the Tea Party Jesus tumblelog that (from an obviously politically liberal point of view) puts the "words of Christians in the mouth of Christ" by inserting quotes from Christians into cartoons of Jesus as commentary on the non-Christ-like things that Christians sometimes say. On the blog you can "[c]lick each picture to find out who really said it." The last two have been related to immigration: link and link.
As pointed out today by Andrew Sullivan...
In the context of discussions about the morality of homosexual relationships, gay marriage, etc., Christians commonly cite passages from Leviticus like Lev. 18:22 and Lev. 20:13. However, those aren't the only OT passages that may have some relevance to current topics of political discussion:
Leviticus 19:33-34 (NIV)
When an alien lives with you in your land, do not mistreat him. The alien living with you must be treated as one of your native-born. Love him as yourself, for you were aliens in Egypt.
See also:
- Leviticus 19:33
- Exodus 22:21
- Exodus 23:9
- Deuteronomy 24:17-18
- Leviticus 19:9-10
- Deuteronomy 24:19-22
- Deuteronomy 10:18-19
- Hebrews 13:2
I would not argue that the most prudent policies of our country on either of these complex issues are straightforward conclusions from these scriptures alone. However, if you consider Leviticus to be relevant to one issue, you might want to consider whether it is relevant to the other.
Update 2010-04-30:
I'm not an advocate for illegal immigration and am not claiming that any of those verses excuse it. However, it seems clear that God has a special concern for the alien and the stranger. Therefore, I am an advocate for compassion and for being especially careful in avoiding collateral damage in any effort to address illegal immigration.
The State of the American Right
Submitted by Jonathan on Fri, 2010-04-09 19:52Greg Sargent invites you to view the following screengrab from Drudge that "...neatly encapsulates the state of the American right."
I Used to Be a Fan of James Taranto
Submitted by Jonathan on Tue, 2010-03-23 20:55I used to be a fan of James Taranto's Best of the Web Today column from The Wall Street Journal. He was witty and seemed take a no-nonsense, rational view of politics from a conservative's perspective. He even occasionally defended Obama against his critics (e.g., regarding the birther conspiracy or his response to the Tiller shooting and the shootings outside the Little Rock Army recruiting center). However, he has seemed to lose his even-handed-ness and rationality over Obamacare during the last few months. It began to seem like I was reading the writings of just another political hack.
His two columns since the House passed the Senate's health insurance reform bill have continued this trend as he writes with the bias, lack of objectivity, and near delusion for which he usually castigates others.
From yesterday's column:
Expansions of the welfare state have always been controversial, but this is unprecedented: massive social legislation passed by a single party over the objections of a clear majority of voters.
Objections of a clear majority of voters? Though conservatives had perhaps convinced themselves otherwise, about half of us either favored the bill or thought it didn't think it went far enough. A new Gallup poll today indicates that, by a 49 to 40 margin, more Americans think the bill's passage was a good thing than think it was bad. Nate Silver has more on why the talk of going against the people's will doesn't hold water. Nate also highlighted a couple months ago something that I've observed in my personal interactions: people have generally lacked basic knowledge about what the House and Senate bills actually contained. Furthermore, the Republican opposition wasn't really based on the content of the bill either (which is fairly characterized as a moderate Republican's bill), but rather was primarily a strategy for reversing the party's electoral fortunes.
Back to Taranto...from today's column:
So Republican unity was an accomplishment--but not much of one. The GOP, their numbers severely depleted by the 2006 and '08 elections, simply did not have the power to prevent a determined legislative majority from imposing its will on the nation.
Remind me again. How did the GOP's numbers get severely depleted and the Democrats get a legislative majority? Oh yeah, that's right, it was partly because the Democrats campaigned on health care reform (among other issues) and were elected by the nation. Now, as that majority delivers on its election promise and passes legislation by majority rule...democracy has somehow now become an imposition of will?!?
Also, over and over again during the last few months Taranto has cited news stories from the U.K. and Canada in an attempt to discredit the proposed reforms. However, among our peers (all of which have some form of universal health care), the U.K. and Canada are two examples that are among the least similar to our reforms (here's a tool for comparing us pre-reform to several of our peers; Obamacare is most similar to the Swiss system). That's the kind of fallacious editorializing that normally gets Taranto's knickers in a twist. Maybe, now that the reforms have been passed, he'll be more like himself. I hope so.
More Thoughts on Health Care Reform
Submitted by Jonathan on Mon, 2010-03-22 22:10One of the more interesting things to me about all this is that so many people are so sure that they absolutely hate this bill. I don't expect everyone to be excited about it. About half of us think government is more the problem than the solution. I don't expect that half to be glad that the government is getting more involved in health care, but please be reasonable.
Let me say it again, this bill you're denouncing as Socialism is a moderate Republican's health insurance reform bill. It's remarkably similar to one Chafee (R) proposed in 1993 and what Bob Dole (R), Howard Baker (R), and Tom Daschle (D) proposed last year. It is the result of months of negotiations among the Gang of Six (R: Enzi, Grassley, Snowe; D: Baucus, Bingaman, Conrad). It contains a multitude of Republican amendments. Yes, the government will be more involved than it is now, but that doesn't mean you get to redefine Socialism. No, the vote wasn't bipartisan, but that was by design of the GOP's strategy for regaining power and not Obama's desire or the bill's actual merits.
If you, like the vast majority of us, get your health insurance via an employer-subsidized plan, then the government is already helping you out in big ways...ways that it isn't helping those who must get coverage on the individual market. It is subsidizing employer-sponsored coverage to the tune of $250 billion per year by excluding that form of income from income tax. Furthermore, pre-existing conditions are not an issue in the employer-based market because of government regulation (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996). Why is it that you deserve these benefits but someone who is out of work or only able to get part-time work or is a freelancer does not?
It's not true that a majority opposes this bill because it is too liberal. It is true that about half of us favor it or think it is not liberal enough. Congress isn't ignoring the will of the people. Obama and the Democrats ran on health reform and won the White House and large majorities in Congress. Now they are delivering on a major campaign promise. This is not an act tyranny. This is democracy.
Also, there are no actual pro-abortion dimensions to the bill. Claiming otherwise despite the facts diminishes our credibility as pro-lifers...and credibility is something we greatly need to be able to change hearts and minds about abortion.
I seem to have noticed a trend away from "Leave health care alone! Our system is the best in the world!" to "Everyone agrees we need reform, but not this reform!" OK, what do you want? Tort reform? Fine, but that's a drop in the bucket. End discrimination against pre-existing conditions? If you do that, then you need the individual mandate...otherwise only the sick will buy insurance. If you have the individual mandate, then it's more important than ever to have adequate subsidies so that everyone can afford it. Sounds like a decent plan you've got there, but it sounds suspiciously familiar.
In the end, I'm glad more of the minority will now have the access to affordable health care that the majority of us already have. I hope you can understand that even if you think I'm misguided.
Health Insurance Reform, Abortion, Conspiracy Theories, Etc.
Submitted by Jonathan on Sat, 2010-03-20 22:13Tomorrow the House will vote on the Senate health reform bill and a set of amendments to it. They will do it with explicit votes rather than the "deem and pass" strategy that had been floated. Although the Senate will still have to pass the amendments itself via reconciliation, it is assumed that those votes are there. That means tomorrow's votes will likely be decisive.
Much of today's drama surrounded whether or not Bart Stupak could be brought back on board by addressing his concerns about the Senate bill's abortion language. Apparently that's not going to happen. On the other hand, an executive order incorporating Stupak's language is apparently being considered.
The debate over whether or not the Senate bill subsidizes abortion is quite odd. Folks like Stupak and the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops say it does. Folks like Brad Ellsworth, The Catholic Health Association, and Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good say it doesn't. The status quo (via the Hyde Amendment) is that the federal government doesn't pay for abortions, and President Obama has made it clear that he doesn't want the health insurance reform bill to change that status quo.
A look at the bill's abortion language makes if difficult to understand why so many people are apparently so sure that it funds abortions. While not requiring or preventing insurance plans to include abortion coverage, it prevents public money from funding them. It requires that the state-based exchanges have at least one plan available that doesn't cover abortions and allows a state to rule out abortion coverage if it chooses. Nevertheless, there seem to be two remaining threads to the pro-life opposition to the Senate bill.
First, the bill stipulates that anyone who wants to purchase a plan that includes abortion coverage in the state-based exchanges must make a separate payment for that coverage, and the insurer must keep that pool of money separate from any governmental subsidies so that they don't directly fund abortions. This is not adequate to Stupak because there will be people who would not have insurance at all without the federal subsidies who then purchase abortion coverage for their subsidy-enabled health insurance. Stupak seems to take the view that once you give someone aid you are effectively subsidizing any other way that they choose to spend money. By that logic I'm sure I have "paid for" all kinds of bad things (by giving money to a church that gives aid to people who also spend their money on bad things), but of course I haven't actually "paid for" those things. Also, many employer-sponsored insurance plans cover elective abortions. A Guttmacher Institute Study indicated 87 %, while a Kaiser Family Foundation said 46 % (LifeNews believes the KFF numbers). I checked on mine (Aetna), and it does. Famously, the Republican National Committee's plan covered elective abortion until it became a news story, and the argument could be made that even Focus on the Family indirectly pays for abortions. By Stupak's logic, isn't everyone who pays premiums to those plans indirectly funding abortions? Furthermore, the tax exclusion for employer sponsored health care is (by Stupak's logic) an enormous abortion subsidy that dwarfs the small, theoretical one that is his current focus.
Secondly, the bill includes funding for "community health centers" which some have claimed could provide abortions. This may in fact be (theoretically) true since that funding would come via a route that might not be subject to the Hyde Amendment. However, it's been argued that there are other long-standing regulations that would prevent programs administered by the Health Resources and Services Administration (programs such as the community health centers) providing abortion services and that the funds will end up in the same pot as other funds subject to the Hyde Amendment, effectively making it subject to the same restrictions.
Here is what National Association of Community Health Centers has to say about it:
Community health centers "have never performed abortions," said Dan Hawkins, senior vice president of policy and programs for the group. "They do not plan to or seek to become a provider of abortions. They don't do that."
Community health centers are focused on their mission of providing primary and preventive health care -- things like immunization and prenatal care -- to those typically underserved by the health care community, he said.
Community health centers were around for 11 years before the Hyde Amendment went into effect in 1976 and they never provided abortions, he said. And last year, they got $2 billion in federal stimulus funds. Of that, $500,000 was for operational funding. It has already been used to provide health care to more than 2 million additional people, he said. Like the Senate bill's proposal, the stimulus money came separate from the HHS appropriation funds (with its Hyde Amendment limits) and contained no specific abortion language. And again, none of it was used for abortions.
Hawkins makes one last point: the $7 billion over five years through the Senate health care bill would be combined by the secretary of HHS (currently Obama appointee Kathleen Sebelius) with the roughly $2.2 billion the centers receive through the annual appropriations bill.
"In our opinion, once this money is combined with the appropriated funds, the Hyde restrictions will apply to the whole thing," Hawkins said.
Together with repeated assurances from Sebelius that no federal funds will be used to pay for abortions, Hawkins said, "We feel confident the restriction (against abortions) will apply."
"And again," Hawkins said, "they haven't done abortions and they aren't looking to do them in the future."
To summarize, it's debatable (but very unlikely) that there is a theoretical risk that the bill could enable direct funding of abortions...but even if it is theoretically possible, it is still highly unlikely. Even so, claims like "monstrously anti-life" and "the most anti-life piece of legislation in the history of our country" are common. Such hyperbole is especially puzzling because there is good reason to think that the health insurance reforms will actually reduce the abortion rate. As T.R. Reid recently argued:
There's a direct connection between greater health coverage and lower abortion rates. To oppose expanded coverage in the name of restricting abortion gets things exactly backward. It's like saying you won't fix the broken furnace in a schoolhouse because you're against pneumonia. Nonsense! Fixing the furnace will reduce the rate of pneumonia. In the same way, expanding health-care coverage will reduce the rate of abortion.
At least, that's the lesson from every other rich democracy.
The latest United Nations comparative statistics, available at http://data.un.org, demonstrate the point clearly. The U.N. data measure the number of abortions for women ages 15 to 44. They show that Canada, for example, has 15.2 abortions per 1,000 women; Denmark, 14.3; Germany, 7.8; Japan, 12.3; Britain, 17.0; and the United States, 20.8. When it comes to abortion rates in the developed world, we're No. 1.
No one could argue that Germans, Japanese, Brits or Canadians have more respect for life or deeper religious convictions than Americans do. So why do they have fewer abortions?
One key reason seems to be that all those countries provide health care for everybody at a reasonable cost. That has a profound effect on women contemplating what to do about an unwanted pregnancy.
Reid summarizes:
When I studied health-care systems overseas in research for a book, I asked health ministers, doctors, economists and others in all the rich countries why their nations decided to provide health care for everybody. The answers were medical (universal care saves lives), economic (universal care is cheaper), political (the voters like it), religious (it's what Christ commanded) and moral (it's the right thing to do). And in every country, people told me that universal health-care coverage is desirable because it reduces the rate of abortion.
It's only in the United States that opponents of abortion are fighting against expanded health-care coverage -- a policy step that has been proved around the world to limit abortions.
Michael New disputes Reid's thesis, claiming the figures Reid uses exaggerate the abortion rate in the U.S., ignores the impact of our racially-diverse population, and ignores the "experience of states that have offered more generous provision of public health benefits." However, as David Gibson points out:
A study published in the latest New England Journal of Medicine shows that abortion rates declined during the first two years that Massachusetts implemented a near-universal health coverage program much like the nationwide plan currently before Congress.
...abortions were on a longer-term downward trend in Massachusetts, so it's possible (I might even say likely) that the reform didn't matter and abortion was dropping for other reasons. But it's hard to look at this data and say that the reforms led to a large increase in abortions.
Ron Sider, President of Evangelicals for Social Action, said the following about the bill:
It is a moral outrage for the richest nation in history to leave 47 million of its people without health insurance. This legislation substantially extends coverage and also retains the long-standing stance of the Hyde Amendment against federal funding of abortion. It will save thousands of lives, cover millions of people, and prevent federal funding of abortion."
It's disappointing to me that so many pro-life groups have opposed health reform so so vehemently and with so much hyperbole. This is not the only way I've recently been disturbed by the tactics of the pro-life movement.
Conspiracy theories seem to be flourishing these days: for example, 911 Truthers, birthers, and whatever nonsense Glenn Beck is pushing this week. Here is one more: as reported in the New York Times:
Across the country, the anti-abortion movement, long viewed as almost exclusively white and Republican, is turning its attention to African-Americans and encouraging black abortion opponents across the country to become more active.
A new documentary, written and directed by Mark Crutcher, a white abortion opponent in Denton, Tex., meticulously traces what it says are connections among slavery, Nazi-style eugenics, birth control and abortion, and is being regularly screened by black organizations.
Black abortion opponents, who sometimes refer to abortions as “womb lynchings,” have mounted a sustained attack on the Planned Parenthood Federation of America, spurred by a sting operation by young white conservatives who taped Planned Parenthood employees welcoming donations specifically for aborting black children.
William Saletan has questioned the consistency of the messages of some of the conspiracy theorists. Admittedly, the figures regarding abortion in the black community are certainly tragic:
Data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that black women get almost 40 percent of the country’s abortions, even though blacks make up only 13 percent of the population. Nearly 40 percent of black pregnancies end in induced abortion, a rate far higher than for white or Hispanic women.
...but I'm not glad to see pro-life groups encouraging conspiracy theories about racists specifically targeting blacks for elimination or to hear claims that blacks are worse off now than they were under slavery...
What All the Fuss is About
Submitted by Jonathan on Tue, 2010-03-09 23:15In response to my claim that the government isn't taking over health care, I was recently asked what's all the fuss about, then?
My answer: politics
(most of what follows is h/t Ezra Klein)
As Maggie Mertens recently pointed out (link) and summarized with the table at the end of this post, the current senate health care bill is remarkably similar to the bill proposed in 1993 by a moderate Republican senator (John Chafee), 19 other Republican senators, and 2 Democrats - considered the major GOP proposal at the time. Naturally, therefore, the Republicans are celebrating that the Dems some 17 years later are pushing a GOP health care bill. Not so much.
Instead, here's a sampling of what we get...
We get this from the Republican National Committee (link):
and we get commentary like this by conservative pundit Mark Steyn from the National Review (link):
I’ve been bandying comparisons with Britain and France but that hardly begins to convey the scale of it. Obamacare represents the government annexation of “one-sixth of the U.S. economy” — i.e., the equivalent of the entire British or French economy, or the entire Indian economy twice over. Nobody has ever attempted this level of centralized planning for an advanced society of 300 million people. Even the control freaks of the European Union have never tried to impose a unitary “comprehensive” health-care system from Galway to Greece. The Soviet Union did, of course, and we know how that worked out.
Annexation of 1/6 of the economy? Ezra Klein rebuts (link):
Putting aside the question of whether government regulations are the same as "annexation" (in which case, the apple I'm eating is federally annexed, and I never knew socialism could be this crisp and delicious), the regulations in question are limited to insurance being offered on the exchanges.
Why does that matter? Because the exchanges, as you can see on Page 20 of this CBO analysis, are expected to serve 25 million people by 2019. That is to say, these regulations will be limited to less than 10 percent of the market. And that 10 percent of the market will be primarily composed of the uninsured.
Why would conservatives be freaking out so extravagantly about a health bill nearly identical to their own from 17 years ago? Did the GOP propose a socialist health care bill in 1993? Were they plotting an unprecedented expansion of government, an annexation of 1/6 of the economy? No. Then what is all the fuss about?
The fuss is all about politics (Waterloo).
From Kaiser Health News (link):
| Major Provisions | Senate Bill 2009 | Sen. Chafee (R) Bill 1993 | Rep. Boehner (R) Bill 2009 |
|
Require Individuals To Purchase Health Insurance |
Yes |
Yes |
No (individuals without |
| Requires Employers To Offer Health Insurance To Employees |
Yes (above 50 employees, must help pay for insurance costs to workers receiving tax credits |
Yes (but no requirement to contribute to premium cost) |
No |
| Standard Benefits Package |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| Bans Denying Medical Coverage For Pre-existing Conditions |
Yes |
Yes |
No (establishes high risk pools) |
| Establish State-based Exchanges/Purchasing Groups |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| Offers Subsidies For Low-Income People To Buy Insurance |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| Long Term Care Insurance |
Yes (sets up a voluntary insurance plan) |
Yes (sets standards for insurance) |
No |
| Makes Efforts To Create More Efficient Health Care System |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Medicaid Expansion |
Yes |
No |
No |
| Reduces Growth In Medicare Spending |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| Medical Malpractice Reform |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
| Controls High Cost Health Plans |
Yes (taxes on plans over $8,500 for single coverage to $23,000 for family plan) |
Yes (caps tax exemption for employer-sponsored plans) |
No |
| Prohibits Insurance Company From Cancelling Coverage |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Prohibits Insurers From Setting Lifetime Spending Caps |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
| Equalize Tax Treatment For Insurance Of Self-Employed |
No |
Yes |
No |
| Extends Coverage To Dependents |
Yes (up to age 26) |
No |
Yes (up to age 25) |
| Cost |
$871 billion over 10 years |
No CBO estimate |
$8 billion over 10 years |
| Impact On Deficit |
Reduces by $132 billion over 10 years |
No CBO estimate |
Reduces by $68 billion over 10 years |
| Percentage Of Americans Covered |
94% by 2019 |
92-94% by 2005 |
82% by 2019 |
2020 Visions
Submitted by Jonathan on Sat, 2010-02-27 15:17In Nature's January 7, 2010, issue (in an opinion section called 2020 Visions):
...Nature asked a selection of leading researchers and policy-makers where their fields will be ten years from now. [Nature] invited them to identify the key questions their disciplines face, the major roadblocks and the pressing next steps.
Several of the items caught my attention. The first was the section on demographics by Joshua R. Goldstein. Recently I'd already been thinking about how demographic changes are on track to create an explosion of debt via health care costs in the coming decades (link). In Nature, Goldstein writes:
As population growth marked the twentieth century, population ageing will mark the twenty-first. By 2020, the average European will have fewer years of life expectancy remaining than years he or she has already lived. East Asians will soon follow. Humankind will spend much of the coming decade grappling with questions about how to organize and pay for the care of an increasing elderly population and about who will produce what the elderly consume.
In the longer term, a return to moderate fertility rates in those countries with very low fertility, and increases in immigration can do much to moderate population ageing. Sweden and Japan face quite different demographic futures, because fertility in Sweden is closer to replacement and a small but steady stream of immigrants will make up the difference. In Japan — the world's leader in longevity — fertility remains low, and immigration a major social challenge.
We need demographic research on four fronts addressing population ageing. Low birth rates can perhaps be increased by measures that reconcile work and family, enabling people to have the children they say they want. Fostering the social and economic integration of immigrants is another priority. Health research, helping people to stay younger longer, is already a priority of ageing societies; indeed, so far, the healthy period of life has been lengthening as fast or faster than life expectancy itself. But now — as the first 65-year-old baby-boomers prepare to blow out their birthday candles — we must address the larger question of rescheduling life's turning points, so that people can remain active and productive. The societies that respond to ageing successfully will be those that take advantage of longer life.
The last line of the first paragraph ("Humankind will spend much of the coming decade grappling with questions about how to organize and pay for the care of an increasing elderly population and about who will produce what the elderly consume.") reminded me of references to Atlas Shrugged. Although I still haven't read it, in the wake of the US government's response to the current economic crisis I see it frequently invoked by pundits (link) and common-man political conservatives as a prophecy that the "producers" will eventually rebel against being taxed to support the "poor" and "lazy." It's ironic that the big crisis that is coming is not whether or not the "producers" will be willing and able to support the poor and the immigrants (another common target of conservative scorn) but rather whether they will be willing and able to support the elderly (who, coincidentally, have recently been flocking to the Republican party: link)...and that our ability to successfully attract and integrate young immigrants will be crucial to facing this challenge.
Another item that caught my attention was soil. David R. Montgomery writes:
To avoid the mistakes of past societies, as 2020 approaches, the world must address global soil degradation, one of this century's most insidious and under-acknowledged challenges. Humanity has already degraded or eroded the topsoil off more than a third of all arable land. We continue to lose farmland at about 0.5% a year — yet expect to feed more than 9 billion people later this century.
During the twentieth century, the Haber–Bosch process (allowing the mass production of nitrogen-based fertilizers) and the Green Revolution effectively divorced agriculture from soil stewardship. Increased yields were supported by intensive fertilizer inputs and mechanization that simplified and devastated soil life, reducing native soil fertility. For example, research in some conventional agricultural settings shows that other species such as bacteria have virtually replaced mycorrhizal fungi, which deliver soil nutrients to most plants. In a post-petroleum world, as the era of cheap fossil-fuel-produced fertilizers comes to an end, conventional, high-input agriculture is neither sustainable nor resilient. Ensuring future food security and environmental protection will require thoughtfully tailoring farming practices to the soils of individual landscapes and farms, rather than continuing to rely on erosive practices and fertilizer from a bag.
This sentence - "In a post-petroleum world, as the era of cheap fossil-fuel-produced fertilizers comes to an end, conventional, high-input agriculture is neither sustainable nor resilient." - really caught my attention. It's not a question of if but when we will be operating in a "post-petroleum world"...and the arrival of that day will require a massive shift in our agricultural practices.
These two topics - demographics and agricultural practices - are examples of the huge problems we have before us. There's no doubt that government will have to play a huge role in solving these problems. However, there is little evidence that it's up to the task...our politics seem to be broken and incapable of producing bold and timely responses to our major problems. The fact that half of us see government as being more of a problem creator than a problem solver makes me wonder how we can possibly respond effectively to our changing world.
The third topic from the nature story that piqued my interest was lasers and their potential to be part of the solution to our energy problems. Thomas M. Baer and Nicholas P. Bigelow write:
Next-generation lasers will allow the creation of new states of matter, compressing and heating materials to temperatures found only in the centres of massive stars, and at pressures that can squeeze hydrogen atoms together to a density 50 times greater than that of lead. The resulting fusion reactions may one day be harnessed to provide almost limitless carbon-free energy. Enough fusion fuel is present in the oceans to supply the current energy needs of the entire world for longer than the age of the Universe.
When so many of our pressing problems can be reduced to problems of energy supply, breakthroughs like this seem to be critical. I realize that enormous sums of money are already devoted to research like this, but I wonder if we are making appropriately-large bets given the enormous payout of success...and if research funding can be sustained at appropriate levels in the coming decades.
Reconciliation
Submitted by Jonathan on Thu, 2010-02-25 23:50Apparently the Democrats are steeling themselves to go it alone and pass health care reform via reconciliation (link):
...Obama is saying that unless Republicans support comprehensive reform as Obama and Dems have defined it — dealing with the problem of 30 million uninsured and, by extension, seriously tackling the preexisting condition problem — they will almost certainly move forward with reconciliation.
As they do, I'm sure the claims that they're ramming an unpopular bill down our throats or ramming it through Congress will only get louder. Here is what I think is important to keep in mind (hats off to Ezra Klein and Greg Sargent)...
The health plan is unpopular.
That plot illustrates the enormous success that the opponents of reform have had in shifting public opinion. Much of that unpopularity comes from people who think it goes too far, but a significant fraction from people who don't think it goes far enough...who think single-payer or a public option is a necessary element of real reform, for example. On the other hand, the individual components of the bill are quite popular (link):
As Klein puts it (link):
Health-care reform is unpopular. But if you actually tell people what's in the health-care reform bill, then it becomes quite popular.
This says to me that the polling that says that health care reform is "unpopular" is not a strong argument for killing Obamacare. Furthermore, (link):
If polls are so important to the Republicans, why aren't they for the public option?
Although it's not in the Senate bill, most Americans support the public option (a health insurance plan offered by the U.S. government) (link, link).
Obamacare gets portrayed as a radical, partisan plan...but "Republican" ideas are prominent in it (link), and the current Senate bill is much closer to 1993's proposal by moderate Republican Chafee than Boehner's plan is (link). Again from Klein (link):
We've got a situation in which Democrats are essentially pushing moderate Republican ideas while Republicans push extremely conservative ideas, but because neither the press nor the voters know very much about health-care policy, the fact that Republicans refuse to admit that Democrats have massively compromised their vision is enough to convince people that Democrats aren't compromising.
Republicans are generally wary of allowing the federal government to define the characteristics of minimally-acceptable health insurance. Klein points out that this philosophical opposition doesn't prevent them from defining minimum standards of their own (link):
Philosophically, Republicans do have a disagreement with this. It's regulation, after all. But in practice, they accept it. When Republican passed health savings accounts into law, they included definitions of the minimum standards a plan had to meet to qualify. When they passed the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit into law, they defined what a plan would have to do to qualify for the program.
Klein makes another good point today (link):
There's a difference between the statements "America has the best health-care system in the world" and "With enough money, you can purchase the best health care in the world in America." But that difference gets run over in political conversations. Sen. John Barrasso, for instance, just mentioned that a Canadian premier recently got heart surgery in Miami. Best health care in the world, baby!
America has about 50 million uninsured people within its borders. Canada has exactly 13 premiers. People should ask themselves a very simple question: Do they think they are likelier to lose their job and fall into the health-care situation of the uninsured or become an influential politician and enjoy the health-care options available to the most powerful people in the world?
The complaint that I expect hear most in the coming days is that it will be a travesty to pass Obamacare via reconciliation (i.e. with a 51-vote simple majority rather than a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate). For example, Bill Frist in today's Wall Street Journal (link):
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has announced that while Democrats have a number of options to complete health-care legislation, he may use the budget reconciliation process to do so. This would be an unprecedented, dangerous and historic mistake.
Budget reconciliation is an arcane Senate procedure whereby legislation can be passed using a lowered threshold of requisite votes (a simple majority) under fast-track rules that limit debate. This process was intended for incremental changes to the budget—not sweeping social legislation.
Using the budget reconciliation procedure to pass health-care reform would be unprecedented because Congress has never used it to adopt major, substantive policy change. The Senate's health bill is without question such a change: It would fundamentally alter one-fifth of our economy.
However, as Julie Rovner pointed out (link), during the past 30 years reconciliation has been used many times and is actually the norm for major changes in health care. A quick summary:
1982 — TEFRA: The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act first opened Medicare to HMOs
1986 — COBRA: The Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act allowed people who were laid off to keep their health coverage, and stopped hospitals from dumping ER patients unable to pay for their care
1987 — OBRA '87: Added nursing home protection rules to Medicare and Medicaid, created no-fault vaccine injury compensation program
1989 — OBRA '89: Overhauled doctor payment system for Medicare, created new federal agency on research and quality of care
1990 — OBRA '90: Added cancer screenings to Medicare, required providers to notify patients about advance directives and living wills, expanded Medicaid to all kids living below poverty level, required drug companies to provide discounts to Medicaid
1993 — OBRA '93: created federal vaccine funding for all children
1996 — Welfare Reform: Separated Medicaid from welfare
1997 — BBA: The Balanced Budget Act created the state-federal childrens' health program called CHIP
2005 — DRA: The Deficit Reduction Act reduced Medicaid spending, allowed parents of disabled children to buy into Medicaid
As another example, Timothy Noah chronicles how welfare reform was accomplished (link).
Finally, Ezra Klein makes another good point on this topic (link):
It's a bit annoying, though, that Democrats keep justifying the reconciliation process based on the fact that Republicans have done it, too. The reconciliation process makes sense because majority votes make sense.
Health Care Reform and the National Debt
Submitted by Jonathan on Thu, 2010-02-18 23:43Current tax rates are relatively low by historical standards. Here is a table and plot of the rates going back to 1913: link
They're also relatively low by international standards. See Table 1 in this article from Forbes: link
The combination of our aging demographics and skyrocketing health care costs means higher taxes are inevitable. See Figure 1 here regarding the coming debt explosion which will be driven primarily by health care costs: link
If you care about the debt and taxes, then the status quo regarding health care is not an option. Things like tort reform won't make a significant difference. The non-partisan CBO has estimated that it would only lower health care spending by 0.5 % (link), and the story is much the same for selling insurance across state lines (link).
More fundamental reform is required, yet even the relatively modest currently-proposed reforms are nearly dead. This doesn’t look good.
Update 2009-02-19:
Admittedly, federal income tax rates don't tell the full story about the tax burden. However, the international comparison in the Forbes article is total taxes (federal, state, and local). In terms of historical U.S. figures, the data from The Tax Foundation show that local and state taxes as a percentage of income have remained stable for the last 30 years (link). In terms of % of GDP (another metric of the tax burden), this figure shows that state and local taxes rose steadily from 1945 to 1970, but not astronomically (link). None of these data support the view that taxes are currently abnormally high. Given the impending debt explosion driven by demographics and health care costs, I'm betting taxes will rise eventually no matter which party is in power.

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