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Don't Play it Safe

It's 4th and goal in the first quarter of a football game. Should you go for it or kick a field goal? From a story by Robert Roy Britt on MSNBC:

...the decision is consistently botched, according to a new study by David Romer of the University of California at Berkeley. In a series of case studies, Romer found coaches to be overly conservative, opting for field goals in situations where, on average, choosing to go for a first down or a touchdown would up the odds of winning by 3 percent. In particular, Romer found that when faced with fourth-and-goal on the 2-yard line early in the game, going for a touchdown is the much wiser choice. While the field goal is a near certainty, getting a touchdown in that situation has about a 43 percent chance of success, he calculates. And failing to score a TD at least leaves the opponent deep in its own territory. But in nine case studies of this situation, the teams booted against the odds. After doing a whole bunch of complex math, and considering things like momentum and field position in more than 700 real NFL game situations, Romer concludes that whenever the chance of a touchdown is statistically 18 percent, that's the better choice.

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